Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Delaware

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Delaware in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Delaware in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 84.5% for Delaware for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.561) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.284).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.6826 8.89%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.6000 -1.85%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1261 -1.95%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0217 -0.17%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0087 -0.52%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.0609 0.50%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0261 -0.61%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.6478 5.58%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0174 0.09%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0261 -0.31%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.6478 -8.14%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.1739 -2.12%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0478 0.47%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0348 -0.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.0565 0.97%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0130 -0.19%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.5348 10.50%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.1174 1.49%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0261 -0.47%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0348 1.01%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0174 -0.05%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.4739 -4.47%
Low Income 0.0081 0.7261 0.59%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0043 -0.02%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.1087 1.68%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.7609 14.38%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.1609 0.25%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.7870 -1.16%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0043 0.06%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.4783 2.97%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0522 -0.26%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0435 -0.09%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0826 0.36%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.9435 2.08%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 417.0000 -7.63%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0035 0.75%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0565 4.87%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0633 1.20%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0091 -4.87%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.1107 -53.87%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1483 55.71%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2375 19.56%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1218 -10.87%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0278 12.60%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0319 7.07%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0340 2.32%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,603 for Delaware for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 41865) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35261).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.7047 -$2,002
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5959 -$514
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1244 -$391
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0155 -$82
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0052 -$31
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.0622 $14
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0259 -$114
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.6477 -$1,506
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0104 -$28
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0207 $145
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.6373 $231
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.1813 $150
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0466 -$62
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0363 $205
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.0622 $252
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0052 $44
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.5648 $545
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.1244 $451
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0259 -$26
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0259 -$35
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0207 -$92
Single Parent 145.7630 0.4819 $70
Low Income -332.4067 0.7358 -$245
Homeless -446.4262 0.0000 $0
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0881 $177
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0000 $0
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.8083 $653
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 3677.5350 $1,343
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.1244 $250
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.7876 $540
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0052 -$13
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.4819 $440
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0466 $5
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0259 -$153
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0829 $70
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.9378 -$193
Median Days in Program 3.2489 398.0000 $1,293
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0035 $85
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0565 $1,826
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0633 $2,483
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0091 -$440
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.1107 $451
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1483 $14,346
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2375 $13,339
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1218 $7,024
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0278 $300
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0319 $1,266
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0340 -$208

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 27.5% for Delaware for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 8.68) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-8.404).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.7605 -27.49%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.6395 33.37%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1000 -0.70%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0368 -3.67%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0211 6.15%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.0553 -7.99%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0184 3.93%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.6947 -39.40%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0053 0.45%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0184 3.64%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.5974 -7.28%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.1921 -3.54%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0342 0.25%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0447 -3.82%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0684 -1.37%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0158 2.90%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.5158 18.81%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.0868 -2.64%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0368 -0.96%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0237 0.59%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0289 2.55%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.5158 11.01%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.0711 5.55%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.7789 -0.10%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.1158 0.76%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0053 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.2000 -2.59%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0289 1.43%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0289 -0.82%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.9263 6.78%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 284.0000 10.07%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 176.0000 -4.29%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.0395 -0.03%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0035 3.54%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0565 50.42%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0633 76.72%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0091 -40.00%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.1107 351.20%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1483 112.33%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2375 235.81%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1218 31.44%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0278 91.48%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0319 -0.46%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0340 -46.06%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 81.3% for Delaware for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -2.094) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.908).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.6589 3.93%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.5234 0.99%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.2850 -0.48%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1308 1.39%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.0234 -0.45%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.0935 1.11%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0280 -0.82%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.4252 -1.52%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0093 -0.09%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0047 -0.09%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.4393 -1.14%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.1682 -3.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0234 -0.42%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.1542 -1.40%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.1495 -2.16%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0561 -0.68%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0374 0.40%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0798 -0.20%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0421 -0.22%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0888 0.05%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0187 -0.47%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.2897 1.29%
Low Income -0.0518 0.3271 -1.69%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0047 0.01%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0234 0.88%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0140 -0.32%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.8271 9.36%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.1262 0.72%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.7850 1.63%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0374 0.28%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.3178 1.58%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0093 -0.12%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0234 1.90%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0093 -0.50%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.9486 -4.86%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 413.0000 0.33%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0035 -0.72%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0565 -2.64%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0633 -10.80%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0091 -9.03%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.1107 -69.46%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1483 -53.42%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2375 -47.37%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1218 -34.73%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0278 8.47%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0319 3.93%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0340 1.40%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $8,754 for Delaware for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 43112) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34357).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.6592 -$1,253
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.5363 $598
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.2793 -$35
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1285 -$273
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0112 -$28
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.1117 -$96
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0223 -$105
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.4469 -$687
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0112 -$39
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0056 -$21
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.4525 -$634
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.1564 -$298
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0279 $2
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.1620 $247
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.1508 $176
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0447 $96
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0447 $76
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0838 $317
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0335 $9
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0670 $97
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0223 -$67
Single Parent -784.4348 0.2961 -$232
Low Income -538.7097 0.3575 -$193
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0056 $44
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0279 $50
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0112 $2
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.8547 $18
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 6807.9800 $624
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.1061 $143
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.7821 $54
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0391 -$97
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.3408 $60
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0112 $5
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0223 -$47
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0056 -$24
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.9441 -$381
Median Days in Program 2.2222 413.5000 $919
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0035 -$96
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0565 $2,070
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0633 $2,986
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0091 -$2,375
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.1107 $9,509
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1483 $14,089
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2375 $12,154
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1218 $5,356
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0278 -$127
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0319 $711
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0340 -$197

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 43.7% for Delaware for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.706) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.269).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.6180 -9.33%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.4719 -3.09%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.3184 7.69%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.1199 5.49%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0412 3.77%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.0674 -4.48%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0337 -1.80%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.5431 -17.88%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0187 4.96%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0112 0.06%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.4869 -9.36%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.1648 -3.93%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0262 -0.68%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.0936 2.46%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.1685 -1.89%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0375 -1.60%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0449 -0.10%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0712 -1.88%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0300 -4.34%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0337 -3.11%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0037 0.17%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.3184 11.75%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0599 2.81%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.8427 2.42%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.1835 7.12%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0375 1.33%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.1910 -1.18%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0375 -1.63%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0337 -13.05%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.9850 -9.49%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 319.0000 -10.25%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 354.0000 -9.68%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.0412 0.67%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0035 -2.86%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0565 25.13%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0633 62.37%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0091 -53.58%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.1107 135.04%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1483 238.06%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2375 170.14%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1218 18.42%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0278 181.79%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0319 -9.09%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0340 -36.78%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 67.8% for Delaware for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.246) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.924).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.3913 2.33%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0478 0.59%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.5696 -8.18%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.2130 -4.38%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.0957 0.10%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.0870 -0.55%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.6043 -2.50%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0087 -0.46%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0217 0.33%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.1261 0.87%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0087 -0.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0000 0.00%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.1174 3.23%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.7304 2.60%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.4652 -2.18%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0348 -0.48%
Low Income 0.0375 0.9739 3.65%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0174 -0.35%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.0652 0.41%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0348 -0.03%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.0478 -0.34%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.8522 2.98%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.6174 -5.35%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.1913 -0.83%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.9348 4.13%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0478 -0.72%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0522 0.39%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0304 -0.10%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0000 0.00%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.7217 0.04%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.0696 0.10%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 252.0000 -1.01%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0035 -2.40%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0565 -10.62%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0633 -8.61%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0091 -6.66%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.1107 -23.65%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1483 -37.90%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2375 0.59%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1218 -4.80%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0278 -30.04%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0319 10.54%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0340 -5.05%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $2,653 for Delaware for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 14715) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-12062).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.4000 -$751.00
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0621 -$5.73
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.5517 -$722.24
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.2000 -$213.30
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.1172 $76.15
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.0897 $171.55
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0000 $0.00
Race: Black -886.3703 0.6069 -$537.94
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0069 -$23.37
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0000 $0.00
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0276 $25.74
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.1517 $209.98
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0138 -$11.42
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0000 $0.00
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0000 $0.00
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.1379 $84.66
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.7172 $391.76
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.4414 -$218.56
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0414 $101.64
Low Income -305.7985 0.9724 -$297.36
Homeless 983.9044 0.0138 $13.57
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0345 -$44.30
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0345 $34.82
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.0552 $47.15
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.8552 -$242.42
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.5586 -$352.08
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.2000 -$92.52
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.9241 $148.95
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0483 -$8.89
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0414 -$68.64
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0345 -$18.61
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0000 $0.00
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.6966 -$3.02
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.0552 -$1.54
Median Days in Program 0.5942 249.0000 $147.96
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0035 -$11.23
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0565 $620.91
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0633 $1,364.36
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0091 -$506.18
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.1107 $4,960.24
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1483 $2,108.32
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2375 $4,838.49
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1218 $863.30
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0278 $1,587.25
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0319 $1,391.37
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0340 -$342.89

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 59.9% for Delaware for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 3.853) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.254).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5750 -15.86%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0833 -6.76%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.2500 -22.56%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.2250 -15.74%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.2083 -34.18%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.0833 -0.14%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0333 -0.05%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.7083 0.30%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0083 -0.13%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0250 4.93%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.1083 -2.92%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0083 0.88%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0000 0.00%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.1000 0.22%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.7167 14.16%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0833 0.17%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.6333 -4.51%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.1417 3.88%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0333 1.85%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.0667 -0.34%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 157.5000 -5.14%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0833 -2.87%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0035 2.70%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0565 54.07%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0633 36.90%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0091 -39.07%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.1107 -157.68%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1483 214.66%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2375 167.76%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1218 76.72%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0278 141.50%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0319 -23.44%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0340 -3.96%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 67.3% for Delaware for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.387) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.714).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.5094 4.08%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4734 5.14%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2093 -1.80%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.0988 -0.07%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1048 -0.66%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.0603 1.40%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0143 -0.34%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.5245 -8.44%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0017 0.16%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0083 -0.25%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0102 0.25%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.5869 -1.01%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.1116 0.43%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0130 -0.05%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0540 1.89%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.0875 -5.92%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0369 -1.94%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1006 0.87%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0477 -0.43%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0553 -1.97%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0760 1.65%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0222 -0.04%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.3337 6.76%
Low Income 0.0926 0.1507 1.40%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0140 -0.09%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0497 0.92%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0107 -0.25%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.8098 25.70%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0731 -1.13%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.8647 -3.33%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0032 -0.03%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0104 -0.12%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0122 1.32%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0096 -0.55%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 77.0000 -2.12%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0035 0.60%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0565 8.70%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0633 6.41%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0091 -0.42%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.1107 32.82%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1483 13.98%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2375 30.47%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1218 7.21%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0278 10.86%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0319 5.43%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0340 1.17%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,542 for Delaware for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 41786) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-36244).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.5194 -$1,441
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.5044 $770
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2095 $47
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.0874 $151
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0734 $293
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.0630 $95
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0134 -$17
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.5434 -$1,590
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0016 -$4
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0084 -$47
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0109 $117
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.5982 -$1,055
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.1107 -$241
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0130 -$28
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0558 $117
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.0882 $6
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0354 -$177
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.1135 $52
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0465 -$54
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0456 -$233
Veteran -913.8967 0.0688 -$63
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0203 $32
Single Parent 660.1018 0.3437 $227
Low Income 634.4633 0.1558 $99
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0129 -$45
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0474 $91
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0090 -$97
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8734 -$192
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 6014.4400 $1,571
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0552 $43
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.8701 $396
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0024 $1
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0105 -$12
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0122 $133
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0108 $18
Median Days in Program 0.8717 77.0000 $67
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0035 $131
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0565 $2,415
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0633 $3,019
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0091 $103
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.1107 $6,932
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1483 $10,066
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2375 $12,230
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1218 $5,239
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0278 $1,159
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0319 $1,640
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0340 -$173

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x